Secondary cities are where African climate risk is actually accumulating

Downscaled modelling across a set of fast-growing secondary cities shows exposure concentrating in settlement areas built within the last fifteen years — precisely the zones with the least drainage provision and the weakest municipal data.

The modelling result that matters least is the projection itself. What matters is that municipalities cannot act on it: land records are incomplete, drainage asset registers do not exist, and the maintenance budget line is the first cut in a tight year.1

Adaptation prioritisation therefore has to start with the unglamorous end — asset registers, maintenance financing, and a settlement layer accurate enough to target intervention.